The study was done by the U.S. Department of Labor. The sponsor of the research was not disclosed to the readers. The interest of this result could be related to politics because people will look at how the unemployment rate has changed while Obama has been President. No methodology information is included in the article. The results are communicated clear because it gives the reported unemployment rate, 8.5%, and compares it to previous rates. The 8.5% rate is the lowest unemployment rate in nearly 3 years. Graphs are also used to help show the significance of the results. A graph showing the unemployment rates after each month of 2011 is a clear representation of the study.
www.latimes.com/business/money/la-fi-mo-unemployment-rate-20120106,0,4486472.story
Don Lee, "Unemployment rate falls to 8.5%, lowest in nearly 3 years", January 6, 2012
Sunday, January 8, 2012
Does Weight Loss Surgery Really Make You Lose Weight?
This article is about the risks and benefits of weight loss surgery among teenagers. Gastric banding bypass surgery is for people who are genetically unable to lose weight on their own, in which a silicone band is inserted into the stomach to constrict it and make the patient feel full sooner. The controversy is whether performing the surgery on teens, whose bodies are still developing, will cause more harm than good. After the surgery the patient is supposed to eat smaller portions so that the band does not become enlarged, and although there is often significant weight loss in the first few weeks the patient can still feel considerable stress because of the restricted diet. Even after the surgery some patients have said that it is difficult to maintain long-term weight loss.
The article cites an Australian study on adolescent obesity which found that one third of teens who have gastric banding surgery come back within two years for follow-up surgery, because they did not follow the diet and their bands became enlarged. The experiment was carried out by a group of doctors, mainly Paul E. O’Brien, at the Center for Obesity Research and Education in Melbourne, Australia. The objective was to compare the results of gastric banding with a non-surgical approach of a supervised lifestyle program geared toward losing weight. 50 random participants from Melbourne, Australia were selected from the experiment. They were all between the years of 14 and 18 and with a body mass index over 35. The participants were put into two groups: the experimental group, which had all undergone gastric banding surgery, and the control group which did a program of lifestyle intervention such as dieting and exercising.
The results were very clearly presented. There was a graph showing how the individuals’ weight changed over the 2 year period of the study, adjusted for age, and it showed that the patients of adjustable gastric banding surgery lost a great deal more weight than those who merely changed their lifestyle. The mean change in the gastric banding group was a 78.8% decrease in body weight, while the non-surgery group experienced a mean of 13.2% decrease. However, 7 of the 25 patients of gastric banding required follow-up surgery because they could not adjust to eating smaller portions. Therefore, gastric banding can result in more significant weight loss than only undergoing a change in lifestyle intervention, but a certain amount of lifestyle intervention is still necessary after surgery to maintain the weight-loss.
The National Health and Medical Research Council funded the study, as well as Allergan, the primary manufacturer of gastric bands. Both of these sponsors had an interest in finding results that proved the success of gastric banding; Allergan wants hospitals to buy its products, and it will profit if gastric banding becomes the primary procedure for weight-loss surgery. The National Health and Medical Research Council would be interested to know that this standard surgery is successful and can continue to be practiced. The results of this study would probably encourage it to support Allergan and gastric banding surgery. Obesity is a prevalent and a very serious health problem, and this experiment was a valuable contribution for evaluating whether this treatment option offers obese youths a better lifestyle.
Hartocollis, Anemona. “Young, Obese and in Surgery.” New York Times, 7 January 2012.
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/08/health/young-obese-and-getting-weight-loss-surgery.html?hp
The Ignorance of the Country
Romano, Andrew. "How Dumb Are We?"
Newsweek, March 20, 2011
Newsweek made a survey and asked random American Citizens to take America's official citizenship test that lead to not very promising results. Out of 1000 Americans, 29% couldn't name Vice President, 73% didn't know the reasons of Cold War, 44% were ignorant of Bill Rights and 6% were not able to name the Independence Day.
For the rest of the article, the author tries to find possible reasons for the ignorance overwhelming the country and ways to solve this problem. These reasons include: complexity of US political system, existence of lot of poor people who have no excess to education, decentralized education system, etc. Whatever the reason might be, it's not impossible, but it definitely needs time to correct the situation.
The survey was made by Newsweek and the sponsor is undisclosed. Results were communicated in a very clear manner but there were no graphs used.
2045: The Year Man Becomes Immortal
Time magazine’s article about the 2045 technologcial singularity popularized by Ray Kurzweil mostly was commentary about Kurzweil’s study and extrapolations. In the article only a single graph was shown. A more detailed presentation of the study that Kurzweil conducted, all of the statistical data, and principles of extrapolation can be found in his book “The Singularity is Near” or on KurzweilAi.net.
1. Futurist and inventor Ray Kurzweil conducted the study. He has in the past predicted many things such as the rise of the internet, the year a computer would beat a chess champion, the fall of the soviet union, and much more. Bill Gates has called him the best in the world at predicting the future of AI. He also started his first company when he was in MIT, and has been an inventor since he was 5 years old.
2. The research was done by Ray Kurzweil himself and he founded The Singularity Institute to continue the research and discussion about this issue.
3. Wired Magazine’s creator Kevin Kelly said that there was a lot in this vision of the future that’s hardwired into peoples’ own withes and desires to see this before they die. However, Ray Kurzweil shows that his projections are completely based on empirical evidence and objective reality. Being an inventor Kurzweil accidentally stumbled upon this exponential trend when he was studying technology trends. He expected the trend to be erratic and all over the place, but he saw that the amount of computing you could get per dollar was growing at a constant rate even during the Great Depression and WWII on a logarithmic scale (a constant rate on a logarithmic scale is exponential). Moore’s Law (the number of transistors that can be placed inexpensively on an integrated circuit has doubled approximately every year) is one such example of this exponential progression. The reason the rate of technological innovation is exponential is because we use our newest technologies to build the next, so it’s basically like compound interest for IRAs. Also the price of these technologies has been decreasing at an exponential rate. Ray Kurzweil called this exponential progression The Law of Accelerating Returns. At the current pace the following things will happen in the near future:
A. Computers will think like humans do by the end of the 2020s. Computers are already there in terms of logical mathematical thinking but soon they will match us in our moral and emotional intelligence as well.
B. The Singularity will occur in 2045. The Singularity refers to a future period which technological change will be so rapid and it’s impact so profound that every aspect of human life will be irreversibly transformed. The pace of technological change will be so fast that you won’t be able to follow it unless you enhance your own intelligence by merging with the intelligent technology we are creating.
C. After the Singularity, humans will become "functionally immortal"... When the singularity arrives we will be able to reprogram biology in a mature human being away from aging and disease. We will transcend biology by merging with our technology and the portion of ourselves that’s still “human” will get smaller and smaller. Virtual reality will be full immersion, all senses, and more realistic that real reality. All kinds of learning will be as easy as downloading. Ultimately we will transcend humanity and the whole way of thinking, feeling, relating with the world that constitutes humanity. By merging with this technology human will enter a new era of superhuman existence.
D. ... And we will be able to bring the dead back to life
E. Oh, and human intelligence will conquer the universe
4. Kurzweil says his information is based on a rich model of diverse technological processes and his predictions are completely based on data driven systematic extrapolations.
5. The information is communicated in a very clear and concise way.
6. Many graphs are also presented in a very informative manner especially the article online from kurzweilai.net and in his book.
Bibliography
Kurzweil, Ray. The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology. New York: Viking, 2005. Print.
"Singularity: Kurzweil on 2045, When Humans, Machines Merge - TIME." Breaking News, Analysis, Politics, Blogs, News Photos, Video, Tech Reviews - TIME.com. Web. 08 Jan. 2012.
A.d., 1000. "The Law of Accelerating Returns | KurzweilAI." Kurzweil Accelerating Intelligence. Web. 08 Jan. 2012.
Saturday, January 7, 2012
Could it be? Manufacturing rose at the end of 2011?
The article, Manufacturing activity, employment on the rise, written by Chris Isidore reports that according to readings of the manufacturing sector, manufacturing grew during the month of December. Implying that the U.S. ended the year with growth in the manufacturing sector. Going further the article mentions unemployment going down. To support the claims Isidore takes survey results done by the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) and Briefing.com. Disclosing that the ISM surveyed manufacturing purchasing managers, while briefing.com surveyed economists. The surveys were examining the manufacturing sector to figure out it if manufacturing activity has been continuing to rise, as has been reported. In addition it was looking to find the effect it had on employment. The data used from the surveys supports the author’s claims, but it is unknown who sponsored this research. The article also does not disclose the survey questions or surveyors methodology. The specific numbers selected from the survey are given to the reader in a clear concise manner. However, without knowing the context of the survey questions it is unknown how supportive the data is. Isidore does not include any graphs or charts, but instead lets the numbers speak for themselves. At the end Isidore includes the advice of economists, saying "it's important not to read to much into the end of the year strength." Maybe what they're really trying to say is this data can be misleading?
Isidore, Chris. "Manufacturing activity, employment on the rise." CNNMoney, January 3, 2012. http://money.cnn.com/2012/01/03/news/economy/ism_manufacturing/index.htm
To let the Queen rule or not?
This survey was published in the Jamaica Gleaner on June 28, 2011. This poll was done by a pollster named Bill Johnson who on four separate days between May and June conducted this survey on sample size of 1008 people. No specific sponsor for this survey was disclosed. The purpose of this survey was to determine the percentage of Jamaicans who feel that the country would be better if still under British rule. The survey results were clearly stated, reporting the percentage of Jamaicans who think the country would be better off, worse off and those who just didn’t know. The report also states the margin of error of this poll. In addition to this, the article shows the opinions of Jamaicans as it relates to changing the country from a monarchy to a republic. These results were also clearly stated, showing the percentage of people that say the monarchy system should be retained, removed and those who just didn’t know. No graphs are used in the representation of the results.
(2011, June 28). Give us the Queen! The Gleaner.
Thursday, January 5, 2012
A Study on Unemployment among College Majors
This report was published by the Georgetown Center for Education and the Workforce. The people or group that sponsored the research is not disclosed to the reader. There doesn’t seem to be any benefit that the sponsor could receive from the study. They cite the sample population and the way that the data was collected; through a survey. The results are clearly articulated to the reader but it does not have the best context because it does not report what the unemployment rate is for the average college graduate. It would help to give some point of reference for the study so that the reader can accurately understand the results of the survey. There are no graphs to represent the data that was collected by the survey.
Annalyn Censky, unemployment Soars Among College Majors like Architecture, CCNMoney.com, January 5th, 2012,
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/unemployment-soars-among-college-majors-163400066.html
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